Surge in global solar capacity exceeds industry expectations

Global solar power installations grew by 86% year-on-year (YoY) in 2023, surpassing industry forecasts and putting the worldwide capacity on track to reach 593 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2024. This is according to data from energy think tank Ember.

Ember’s estimates are projections based on a total of 292 GW installed capacity as of July this year. The data comes from reported solar installations in 15 countries worldwide.

If the growth trend holds, it will be a 23% YoY increase in worldwide solar capacity.

Eleven of the countries are breaking their own previous solar installation records, with Portugal, Turkey, India, the United States, and Italy in the top 5.

China, Argentina, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, and Brazil are behind but are still installing more in 2024 than they did in 2023.

“In China, the country with the largest solar fleet, solar additions for January-July 2024 were 28% higher than in the same period in 2023,” Ember said.

Meanwhile, solar capacity installations in India in the first seven months of 2024 are 77% higher than in the same period in 2023.

“In the US, new solar additions in January-June 2024 are 55% higher than in January-June 2023.

But while China is not in the top 5 for 2024, it is still consistently installing the most by total GW, holding around 56% of the total solar capacity of around 334 GW. In fact, China installed more solar on its own last year than the world did in 2022.

According to Ember’s analysis, China, the United States, India, Germany, and Brazil combined are on track to make up 75% of global solar additions in 2024. Other nations have added around 5%, with the remaining 20%, give or take, coming from Chinese solar PV exports.

“This rapid expansion has enabled the country to surpass its wind and solar capacity targets six years early,” Ember adds.

Most of the United States’ solar additions have come from utility-scale solar capacity, which comprised over 80% of additions in the first six months of 2024. European nations have seen a more modest increase overall, with some nations, like Italy, racing ahead with a 41% increase in solar by July.

India successfully installed more solar panels than it did in 2023, driven partly by new government policies and incentives.

Find out more about large scale solar with our guide to the world’s biggest solar farms.

Global solar capacity set to rise massively in 2024

According to the Ember report, the world is on track to add more solar capacity in 2024 than the global increase in coal power capacity since 2010, further solidifying solar as the cornerstone of the global energy transition.

However, in all metrics, Ember has found that industry expert estimates have dramatically underestimated 2024 solar installations.

“The 593 GW estimated from the pace of additions so far this year is in line with Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) forecasts but is almost 200 GW higher than the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) main case outlook released in January 2024,” Ember explained.

Industry analysts’ forecasts for solar installations 2024 vary widely, from 353 GW (Wood Mackenzie) to 592 GW (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), reflecting some uncertainty but strong overall growth expectations.

However, experts warn that grid systems should be prepared to handle and store the power generated. This is especially true if estimates of total output by 2030 are realised. If not, then solar installation momentum could be lost.