- Committee advises government on legally-binding milestones to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
- Electrification and low-carbon electricity supply make up the largest share of planned emissions reductions – 60% by 2040
- Household energy bills will be around £700 cheaper than today if Net Zero is achieved by 2050
By 2040, UK emissions must be reduced by 87% compared to 1990 levels in order to reach the 2050 net-zero target.
This is according to the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Seventh Carbon Budget which advises the government on legally-binding limits to the UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
In accordance with the Climate Change Act (2008), the government’s independent climate advisers produce a carbon budget every five years, to be set in law by the Government 12 years before the allocated time begins.
The latest carbon budget covers the five-year period from 2038 to 2042. It explores how the UK can achieve decarbonisation by 2050, including what actions need to be taken in order to reach its targets.
Electrification is key
The electrification of fossil-fueled technology, such as decarbonising the grid, replacing diesel/ fuel vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs), and replacing boilers with heat pumps, makes up 60% of emissions reductions by 2040.
According to the CCC, within 15 years, four in five cars should be EVs and 50% of UK homes should have heat pumps. As the executive summary of the CCC budget says:
“Electrification and low-carbon electricity supply make up the largest share of emissions reductions in our pathway, 60% by 2040. Once the market has locked into a decarbonisation solution, it needs to be delivered.
“The roll-out rates required for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and renewables are similar to those previously achieved for mass-market roll-outs of mobile phones, refrigerators, and internet connections.”
The Seventh Carbon Budget – Climate Change Committee
“The roll-out rates required for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and renewables are similar to those previously achieved for mass-market roll-outs of mobile phones, refrigerators, and internet connections.”
Energy secretary Ed Miliband said: “We owe it to current generations to seize the opportunities for energy security and lower bills, and we owe it to future generations to tackle the existential climate crisis”.
The world currently invests nearly twice as much in clean energy as it does fossil fuels, with investment reaching more than £1.5tn globally in 2024.
Countries such as Norway are leading the charge in rolling out clean technology, with it set to be the first country to fully transition to EVs.
Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of the CCC, said: “For EVs, the market is already pretty much at parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, so we think naturally that will start to be a choice people make.
Heat pumps
Talking directly about heat pumps, Pinchbeck said: “For heat pumps, we’re saying it’s different, the costs are still higher than a fossil fuel boiler and the government will need to act to help people get those technologies.
“This requires the annual rate of heat pump installations in existing residential properties to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035 […] Installation rates do not exceed natural replacement cycles; heating systems are only replaced at the end of their life. All new and replacement heating systems become low carbon after 2035 to ensure a fully decarbonised housing stock by 2050”.
The CCC also predicts that annual household energy bills will be around £700 cheaper than today if net-zero is achieved by 2050 and their pathway is followed, including additional support and investment for struggling households.
Energy security
The CCC has also focused on energy security in its pathway, citing that half of recessions since the 1970s have been caused by energy shocks.
If the UK decarbonisation policies align with the CCC’s pathway, a spike in gas prices like the one following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, average household energy bills would be 15 times less sensitive in 2040.
Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the CCC, said: “The Committee is delighted to be able to present a good news story about how the country can decarbonise while also creating savings across the economy.
“For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming. This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills.
“Our analysis shows that there is no need to pitch action on climate change against the economy. We will need Government and business to deliver the investment, but we are confident that this Seventh Carbon Budget offers a secure, prosperous future for the UK.”
UK contribution to global emissions
According to the CCC, UK GHG emissions were 423.3 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2023, including the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping:
“This is 49.5% lower than in 1990. UK emissions excluding those from international aviation and shipping have now fallen by over half.
The UK’s share of global emissions has fallen from 2.3% to below 1% over this period.
- Despite these reductions, the UK’s emissions are still important. Over a quarter of global emissions are produced by countries with a share of global emissions less than 1%.
- UK cumulative CO2 emissions since 1750 are estimated to be around 79 GtCO2 [a gigaton is a billion metric tons]. This represents around 4.4% of estimated global emissions to date.”
Seven recommendations
The CCC has laid out seven key recommendations in its report:
- Making electricity cheaper
- Removing barriers to low-carbon technologies.
- Providing certainty with the Government’s support
- Supporting households to install low-carbon heating
- Setting out how Government will support businesses
- Enabling the growth of skilled workforces and supporting workers in the transition
- Implementing an engagement strategy
Pathway to reducing emissions
Sector by sector, 27% of the emissions reduction by 2040 will come from non-aviation transport, with the expectation that three-quarters of road vehicles will be electric by 2040.
Fourteen per cent of the emissions reduction will come from residential buildings, where supply chains and installers trained in low-carbon heating are expected to scale up so that all new home heating installations are low carbon.
Twelve per cent of emissions reductions will come from electricity supply, the demand of which will increase given the predicted switch to EVs. Meeting such growth would require a quick roll out of low-carbon generation, with offshore windfarms vital to this target.
Eleven per cent of the emissions reduction comes from industry. Carbon capture and storage is considered important for tackling process emissions, although there is an underlying issue that by implementing this technology, it serves as a justification for fossil fuel companies to delay the transition to renewable energy. As a result, this technology should be targeted at industrial sectors with limited alternatives.
Seven per cent of the emissions reduction comes from agriculture and land use. Low-carbon farming practices can achieve a large reduction in agricultural emissions, but reaching net zero would also need a decrease in the livestock population, making space to plant trees. As a result, we would need to eat less meat and dairy. In the CCC’s pathway, cattle and sheet numbers should be reduced by 27% and woodland rising from 13% to 16%.
Five per cent of the emissions reduction comes from aviation. Sustainable aviation fuel will be increased gradually. The remaining 24% comes from other sectors such as non-residential buildings, shipping and waste.
Pinchbeck continued: “We are crystal clear in this analysis, in this carbon budget, for the first time we start to see the economy making savings from this investment, and they make savings over and above what we would do if we stay dependent on fossil fuels.
“Regardless of what you think about climate change, what we are laying out today is a massive industrial revolution.
“It will save the economy money by 2040, it saves people money on their energy bills, it saves people money on their driving costs, but all of that is underpinned by a cheaper electricity price.”
Costs
The CCC says the estimated net costs of delivering the plan are 0.2% of GDP annually, with the private sector funding 65-90% of the financing requirement from 2025 to 2050 and public spend per year never surpassing 2% of total managed public expenditure.
An update of the UK’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), announced by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at COP29 in November 2024, has committed to reducing all greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81% on 1990 levels, excluding international aviation and shipping emissions.
