- Donald Trump will become the 47th US President in January 2025
- The reality TV star and real estate mogul has confounded pollsters once again
- Winning Republicans the popular vote for the first time since 2004
- But what does his victory mean for climate change and the planet?
Donald Trump’s election as US President for the second time brings with it huge concern and uncertainty for the environment and the country’s interest in low-carbon technology (LCT).
The soon-to-be 47th President has stated on many occasions his opposition to environmental policies in exchange for supporting the fossil fuel sector, and his administration could undo work by the previous administration to encourage investment and remove the US from international agreements.
As well as being an environmental problem, it is also an economic one.
In 2022, the US experienced eighteen weather and climate disasters costing at least $1 billion.
Between now and 2090, it is estimated that climate change will cost the US more than $500 billion annually.
Thinking more broadly, about 10% of the value of the global economy could be wiped out by 2050 if global governments fail to meet their Paris Agreement commitments.
The US is the world’s second largest manufacturing nation and one of the globe’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs). How it chooses to tackle climate change will have a huge impact on the rest of the world and could determine if the planet as a whole achieves its goals.
With that in mind, what does a second Trump presidency hold for US environmental policy?
Unpicking the Inflation Reduction Act
Trump is no fan of the President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and stated as recently as September that he would “rescind all unspent funds” under the “misnamed Inflation Reduction Act” as part of his fiscal plan.
This could have severe consequences for the environment and the US’ clean energy industry because written into the Act is a goal to cut carbon emissions by 40% by 2030.
To do this the IRA includes grants, loans, tax provisions and incentives to encourage investment in clean energy and a sustainable supply chain, such as the national grid, renewable technology and domestic manufacturing, among much else.
It also provides tax credits for individuals and businesses who invest in renewables – tax credits worth about an estimated $1.2 trillion, according to Goldman Sachs.
Trump’s stated desire to curtail the Inflation Reduction Act is more than simply a cut in government spending, it threatens private sector investments in renewable technology projects.
According to PV Magazine, stocks in US solar and clean energy companies took a tumble in response to the possible repeal of the IRA, but they may yet recover.
The US is already struggling with launching clean energy projects due to permitting bottlenecks, and there is an estimated 100 gigawatts of clean energy waiting to be approved.
This is something that President Biden’s administration, despite its legislative success, has failed to fix. Even prior to Trump’s victory, it was estimated the US could lose $100 million in clean energy investment without reforms to the permitting process.
However, is an overhaul of the Act likely, or even possible?
Aurelian Hemelle, chief executive officer of TotalEnergies, dismissed the idea that a new Trump presidency would see the end of the Act before the election.
This would be a fair observation if the only news from the US was a second Trump term in The White House. The 1974 Impoundment Control Act means a president cannot simply rescind federal funds for ideological reasons – doing that requires congressional approval.
The problem for the renewable sector is that the Republicans have also taken the House of Representatives, which means that they have all three major levers of power.
Repealing the New Green Deal
In the same speech where he vowed to refund money for the Inflation Reduction Act, Trump also said he plans to “terminate” the New Green Deal, which he has referred to as a “scam”.
Passed by the Senate in 2019, the Green New Deal is a cornerstone of the US’ environmental policy.
Its objective is to bring down US GHG emissions to net zero and have 100% of power generated by clean energy by 2030, putting a huge emphasis on job creation as well as cutting carbon emissions.
This includes funding communities affected by climate change, upgrading infrastructure and investing heavily in renewable energy across the economy, from farming, office buildings, transportation and heavy industry.
While Trump has stated explicitly that he doesn’t want the New Green Deal, he hasn’t said if he will repeal it altogether or just cut it back severely.
With the potential for job creation the New Green Deal offers, Trump may be persuaded to maintain some elements if it wins him support in those states that would benefit, however unlikely that may seem.
However, if he does indeed want to repeal the New Green Deal, with Republicans now controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate, there is nothing that can stand in his way, and this would set the US environmental policy back years.
Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement – again
During the election, Trump’s campaign suggested that the US could withdraw from the Paris Agreement, a global framework to cut GHG emissions and a long-term plan to keep global surface temperature to below 2 degrees celsius,
It did so before during Trump’s first administration in 2017, but President Biden took the US back into the Agreement almost as soon as he took over in 2021.
Trump has described the Paris Agreement as a “disaster” and claimed the US is being “ripped off”.
A second withdrawal, which seems likely even if it hasn’t been specifically stated, would “cripple” the Paris Agreement, according to UN general secretary Antonio Gutteres.
“It’s very important that the United States remain in the Paris Agreement, and adopt the kind of policies that are necessary to make the 1.5 degrees still a realistic objective,” Gutteres said at COP16 biodiversity summit in Cali, Colombia in November 2024.
Leaving the Paris Agreement would be relatively straightforward and Trump could even go as far as to leave the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and according to some reports he would do so.
‘Drill, baby drill’
Trump has stated his intention to rapidly increase drilling for oil offshore and inland, and will seek to make it much easier for oil companies to do so on federal land. He has even said he would allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.
This would be a repeat of his previous time in office, when he removed protections from areas of Alaska and the Atlantic.
His goal is to turn the US into the biggest exporter of oil and gas in the world and to achieve energy independence. Many other countries are pursuing energy independence as well, but Trump’s vision is starkly different.
Whether or not his ‘drill, baby drill’ policy amounts to anything other than rhetoric will have significant consequences for the planet.
Does Trump support EVs?
While Trump is clearly not prioritising the environment, there is one area of sustainability where he might lend support, albeit begrudgingly, and that is electric vehicles.
He has railed against EV infrastructure investment in the past, erroneously saying it will cost $9 trillion to the US taxpayer, but he has cooled his criticism thanks to the high-profile backing of Elon Musk, who gave the Trump campaign a staggering $119m (£91.6m).
At a rally in Atlanta, Georgia during the campaign, he said he was “for EVs” as a result of Musk’s support. While this may be entirely cynical and transactional, it does some hope that Trump’s second administration will be less hostile to LCT than it first appears.
According to Forbes, shares in Musk’s EV-giant Tesla surged by 12% on Wednesday following Trump’s election win – adding $20 billion to Musk’s already vast fortune.
If he can be persuaded to support EVs out of personal interest, there is the potential for him to do likewise in other areas.
