- Heat pump sales fell by an average of 22% in 14 European countries
- The sharpest drops were in Belgium at 52% and Germany with 48%
- Only the UK bucked the trend where heat pump sales grew 63%
Sales of heat pumps fell by an average of 22% in 14 European countries in 2024 compared to 2023, preliminary data from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) said.
More than 2 million (2.2 million) were sold in 2024 in those 14 countries, which make up around 90% of the European market, compared to 2.8 million in 2023. As a result, the shift from fossil fuels to heat pumps has slowed.
Due to the decline in sales, jobs have been slashed to reduce production in Europe after industries invested billions in additional capacity in 2022 and 2023. This investment aimed to bolster Europe’s energy security and reduce its reliance on Russian gas, but the decline in heat pump sales now harms the competitiveness that policy makers are eager to change.
At least 4,000 jobs have been cut, with more than 6,000 more seeing impacts.
According to the report, there are three reasons for the decline in sales. These are:
- Governments have changed support schemes for heat pumps, unsettling consumer confidence
- A sluggish economy with a cost of living crisis
- The low price of subsidised gas
Paul Kenny, director general, EPHA, remains optimistic about the future of heat pumps in the European market, though, citing it is “down, but is far from out”.
He said that consumers want clean and comfortable homes, and they also want to support European jobs and energy independence.
“As soon as they see it’s possible, thanks to supportive EU and national policies, and taxes, which penalise fossil fuels not people, they show this by turning to heat pumps.
“We count on the EU Commission and governments to deliver in the coming months, starting by putting heat pumps front and centre of the upcoming Clean Industrial Deal, and supporting European clean tech leadership.
The countries experiencing this decline in sales are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.
Out of these countries, however, the sharpest drops were in Belgium at 52% and Germany with 48%. Only the UK bucked the trend where heat pump sales grew 63%, thanks to supportive government schemes.
UK bucks heat pump slump
Meanwhile in the UK, factory gate sales data released by the Heat Pump Association (HPA) in January revealed that 98,469 hydronic heat pumps were sold in 2024. This was driven by a 64% year-on-year increase in air source heat pumps sales (shown as A2W Monobloc in the chart below):
Figures from the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero unveiled a 67% jump in the number of applications made to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) last year, the scheme offers homeowners and landlords £7,500 towards the cost of a heat pump installation.
Commenting on this growth, minister for energy consumers Miatta Fahnbulleh said:
“It’s fantastic to see huge progress on heat pump installations, with thousands of people now benefiting from clean heating in their homes.
“We are keeping up this momentum by almost doubling the budget for our Boiler Upgrade Scheme in the next financial year, giving more families £7,500 off the cost.”
Charlotte Lee, chief executive of the HPA, said:
“This unprecedented, accelerated growth is a sign of progress and reflects the sector’s dedication and determination to scale up to support the decarbonisation of heat in UK homes and buildings.”
Commenting on the contrast between the picture in the UK and Europe, Bean Beanland, director of growth at the Heat Pump Federation told The Eco Experts:
“As in many things, the UK appears to be moving in the opposite direction to much of Europe. To be honest, I suspect that the European situation may be temporary, especially as the climate impact data keeps piling up.
“Global gas prices continue to adversely impact everywhere, but more so in the UK, because of our on-going reliance on gas for a high proportion of our electricity. Everyone is talking more about government action being required in the UK to start to close the spark gap, one way or another.
“I think that it is necessary for the wider electrification sector to work with finance and government to come up with a mechanism that can be seen to be politically palatable.”
Room for improvement
Following fairly meagre growth in heat pump sales from 2022 to 2023 (4%), we asked Beanland how he thought the UK had managed to increase deployment so significantly in 2024.
He said: “Clearly the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) continues to drive the able-to-pay market. Other subsidy programmes are also driving installations, although ECO4, in particular, needs some urgent attention to improve the quality of installations”
“The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) is currently making calls to every BUS recipient within a month or so of the completion of the installation. This programme is reporting a 90%+ satisfaction rate, which is great.”
“Sadly, ECO4 is running some way off this mark.”
“I see several reasons for this. If a property is getting multiple interventions under an ECO4 deal, and the whole project goes to a single contractor, there is a risk that the contractor is a ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’. Heat pump installations and external/internal wall insulation deployment, in particular, both require mastery, in my opinion, so would be better carried out by dedicated highly specific and professional providers.”
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